2026: Engine Shortages and Grounded Aircraft Are Now the Primary Constraint on Global Fleet Availability

Engine availability has emerged as the most immediate operational constraint shaping the aircraft leasing market, overtaking airframe production delays as the dominant short-term risk for airlines. Ongoing shortages of spare engines, extended shop visit timelines, and constrained MRO capacity are grounding aircraft across multiple fleet types, particularly next-generation narrowbodies.

Airlines operating GTF-powered fleets and older CFM variants are facing longer-than-expected maintenance cycles, with limited access to replacement engines exacerbating downtime. As a result, carriers are increasingly turning to lessors for short-term lift, lease extensions, and stop-gap capacity to protect schedules and maintain network integrity.

For lessors, the engine situation is reinforcing demand for available aircraft with clear maintenance status and near-term operability. Mid-life assets with strong maintenance records are benefiting, as airlines prioritise certainty of availability over fleet modernisation timelines. Lease extensions are becoming more common as operators delay returns and seek stability through the disruption.

The engine bottleneck is expected to persist through the mid-to-late 2020s, supporting utilisation rates, sustaining lease pricing, and increasing the strategic value of technical asset management within leasing portfolios.

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